July 25, 2006
Network Inter-compatibility - A VoIP Holy Grail?
According to comScore [via TechCrunch and others], it appears that the Google Talk IM does not have all that many users. Google Talk is a distant fourth in the list of IM clients. The top three spots are taken by MSN Messenger, Yahoo Messenger, and AIM. We're not talking total number of downloads, just number of users.
These numbers indicate that, as of May 2006, there are only just over 339 million IM users of all flavours, out of over 900 million Internet users worldwide. MSN is at the top with about 60% of the market and Google Talk has only 1%.
The numbers appear to be for text IMs only. Consider that for Skype, I've been numbers like 250 million (PDF, 1 page) and 280 million downloads, and 100 million registered users (which was passed in early May 2006). Google is nowhere close to neither Skype nor the top text IM clients. Note: the TechCrunch article points out that the comScore numbers do not include the embedded version of GTalk within GMail. Some GMail users apparently prefer to use the native IM.
Some of the above IMs (in fact, possibly all - I don't know much about AIM) have direct VoIP (PC-to-PC) capability. Windows Live Messenger and the latest Yahoo! Messenger now have VoIP ability as well.
Regardless, the numbers suggest that Skype has to be able to keep up, especially with the announced IM alliance between Microsoft and Yahoo! When their respective IM's become compatible, together they'll have over 83% of the IM market (using current numbers).
With that kind of market share, don't have to swallow their pride and use the open source Jabber/XMPP, but it sure would be nice. That's what Google, Trillian, and several other lesser-known IMs use. Can you imagine an Internet where you can choose your fave IM/ VoIP soft client and connect to anyone? Skype, MSN, Yahoo, AIM, Google Talk.... Nice.
As for Michael Arrington's suggestion (at TechCrunch) that Google come up with a strategy to grab more market share, I recommend they buy Vozin Communications. Their Talqer soft client turns Google Talk into a true VoIP client.
From my point of view, once all the technical kinks are worked out of VoIP services, including e911 and improved call quality, every person on Earth who uses a phone will be using a straight or hybrid VoIP phone or soft client. If they were to all become intercompatible, then these usage numbers might be perceived as meaningless - especially by the marketing engines of the larger companies. This would be a reason for them not to work towards compatibility. Too bad, because we could use more IM/VoIP network intercompatibility.
Aside: If you do a Google Search for "how many Skype users worldwide", you can see how fast Skype downloads increased in 2005. Or you could read Jean Mercier's post at SkypeJournal (about downloads in the US and Canada), which suggests that the number of downloads needs to be filtered for previous users who were upgrading one or more times since they first downloaded Skype.
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