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20/20: Visions for 2004 and beyond; What does the telecom future hold?


According to several of the service provider executives we interviewed for this year's 20/20 Visions cover story, looking more than 18 months to two years out is something done only behind closed doors, at night and in whispered voices. Yet their public mantras are clear: Steer their ships toward sustained stability and profitability. What can we expected in 2004?

Read on ...

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[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

Mark F. Spagnolo

CEO Broadwing Communications


Q. Is the all-optical network still central to Broadwing's strategy?

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

A. At the core of the network, all-optical gives us a huge advantage in terms of provisioning time, quality of service, capacity, the way we interface with our customers, etc. We are definitely going to continue that, especially with Corvis being a 96-percent owner.

Q. What are your main technology thrusts going forward?

A. We have three:

* We're going to move toward a converged network. The edge will be device-independent and 'any in/any out' so if you want frame, you get frame, IP you get IP and ATM you get ATM. The core will be one network that's optical, in comparison to having multiple layers at the core, which most carriers have today.

* Efforts are underway to beef up and expand the network edge. We're going to be in lots of places, so more POPs, more connection points, getting closer to the customer.

* As we expand the edge, we'll be pushing the core closer to the edge. We'll be putting more optical POPs in more cities and that type of thing. A great example of this is the Florida route that we just lit.

Q. What are the services that Broadwing sees growing in 2004 and beyond?

A. On a gross level, we'll continue to see a growth in data products vs. voice. Right now, we're seeing two-thirds of revenues coming from data and one-third from voice, and that's shifting very quickly toward data. At the same time, two-thirds of revenue is enterprise-based and one-third carrier-based, so we're working on a lot of data-oriented services. We're working on a lot of IP things and have brought in a lot of people to beef up our IP products, as well as expansion to our frame platforms.

Q. A lot of carriers are going after the enterprise market. How does Broadwing differentiate?

A. We put it under a banner called agility, and there's a lot of things that go into it--customer experience, speed of provisioning, the way we work with customers to meet their business needs. We think service level and quality is what will set us apart, and that's where we'll focus in the future.

--Sue O'Keefe

Dan Lowden

Vice President of Marketing Wayport

Q. Quick-in, quick-out places don't seem like the optimal places for Wi-Fi. So why is the relationship with McDonald's so important to Wayport?

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

A. The McDonald's relationship and the pilot program has been terrific, and it's important to us because they're looking at a shared-risk, shared-reward type of model. Plus, there are 13,000 McDonald's restaurants in the U.S. alone, providing ubiquitous coverage nationwide. The quick-in, quick-out aspect won't go away, so we expect the use will be more of a 'Did Bob respond to my e-mail?' type of connection or a quick stock quote check. In most locations, users will be able to connect within the store or right from the parking lot if they want to, giving them quick-in and quick-out access.

Q. What is Wayport's wholesale strategy?

A. We already have established relationships with several carriers on a wholesale basis because they serve 100 million+ wireless customers who could be potentially driven to Wayport locations--huge market potential. The carriers we're working with have started marketing Wayport-enabled Wi-Fi services to their customers. SBC is a good example. We're also going to help them deploy hot spots in about 3000 locations and we'll be the managed service provider for them.

Q. Amazingly enough, there are still a wealth of IT managers out there who don't want employees to have access to Wi-Fi because of security concerns. Whose responsibility is the education process?

A. The responsibility falls to providers like Wayport, to the industry as a whole, to companies like Microsoft and Intel. The goal is to bring Wi-Fi to a level where IT managers are comfortable with it. Today, most of the people that connect are SMBs. They see risks, but they see greater benefits. We haven't really seen the huge influx of large enterprises yet, but through the use of VPNs, IT managers are getting comfortable with the fact that their employees' data is safe and secure. Eventually Wi-Fi will find its way into everyone's hands. The majority of people that will find value in this are the business travelers, many of which are still using dial-up in their hotel rooms. We have more than 800 hotels delivering Wayport service and 12 airports.

Q. What still needs to be done to bring Wi-Fi to the next level?

A. I think roaming is the big issue, and a lot of work needs to be done there. We're a neutral host; we want to give access to every carrier that has customers. We're very open to roaming, as are companies like SBC, Verizon Wireless and AT & T Wireless. T-Mobile to date, however, is not. Collaboration between providers is going to be key to taking Wi-Fi to the next level and making the service available to as many users as possible.

--Sue O'Keefe

Dean Johnson

President and CEO First Avenue Networks

WHILE THE 'BUILD IT AND THEY WILL COME' MILLIMETER wave wireless industry fell short, First Avenue Networks, born out of the former ART (Advanced Radio Technologies), feels it has the new formula for success. This confidence is bolstered by a fresh approach to broadband wireless, where First Avenue works with vendor and integrator partners, and taking advantage of the FCC's flexible spectrum allocation rules.

"We needed to take a bottoms-up approach," said Dean Johnson, president and CEO of First Avenue Networks. "That approach, combined with recent industry and regulatory changes, will give us an opportunity to succeed where others failed because we are out there using the spectrum in a non-proprietary way that will help stimulate the wireless broadband industry."

With over 350 MHz of spectrum in the top 50 U.S. markets, the operator offers a full suite of services via its 39 GHz wireless network: wireless backhaul, wireless fiber extension, WISP (wireless ISP) backhaul and enterprise connections. Customers can utilize the product for per-link deployments (Express Link) and regional deployments that could require up to 100 MHz of spectrum (Express Net). Each of the 39 GHz channels has an available 100 MHz that can deliver up to an OC-12 link.

By taking advantage of the FCC rules that allow millimeter licensed spectrum owners to offer third-party leasing agreements, First Avenue customers can lease for as low as $500 per-link, per-year. The provider can light up a link for such applications as cellular backhaul or fiber extension within 24 hours, enabling it to offer its products not only to large carriers, but also to smaller carriers that before would not have been cost-effective to serve.

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

Johnson believes that both mobile backhaul and fiber extension via millimeter wave wireless links could become major drivers as operators feel the squeeze from the financial markets to increase profits while reducing costs. While renting T1 facilities has been the norm for wireless backhaul, First Avenue in a joint study conducted with integrator Bechtel showed that an operator could potentially save an estimated $52 million for backhaul with millimeter wave wireless links on a nationwide wireless network.

And while the revenue numbers are not reported yet, Johnson says business is good. The operator continues to attract multiple smaller WISPs for its Express Link product as well as enterprise customers. More significantly, the operator has signed an unnamed deal for its Express Net backhaul with a major carrier for cellular backhaul.

As part of its drive to move the company forward, First Avenue is eyeing new advances in software-configurable radio technology and other advancements designed to increase the flexibility of delivering service.

--Sean Buckley

Shawn Lewis

President and CEO Caerus Inc.

CAERUS INC.'S PRESIDENT SHAWN LEWIS IS NOT AFRAID TO take a fresh approach to a problem. In a previous life, Lewis was the co-founder of X-COM, developing what is now known as Level 3's softswitch network. And from the looks of it, Caerus and its subsidiary, VoIP provider Volo Communications, is following the same path: Caerus its developing own open packet voice platform, an approach Lewis argues is not only more economical, but will also allow carriers to adapt to stay ahead of the competitive curve.

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

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